Apple’s dominance in the Chinese market appears to be waning, with iPhone sales facing a notable decline.
According to industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, iPhone shipments in China dropped by 10-12% year-over-year in December 2024, despite the country’s overall smartphone market remaining stable. This marks a continued decrease in Apple’s Chinese market share.
The iPhone 16 series, with its minimal updates such as a slightly modified camera lens bump, failed to excite Chinese consumers. This lack of perceived innovation has contributed to declining sales, mirroring a broader trend of reduced market share for Apple in the region.
“In December 2024, overall smartphone shipments in China were about flat, iPhone shipments dropped by about 10-12% YoY, reflecting a continued slide in Apple’s Chinese market share.” — Ming-Chi Kuo.
In response to these challenges, Apple has begun offering significant discounts on iPhone models in China. Starting January 4, 2025, the company reduced prices by up to 500 yuan (approximately $70) on certain models in an effort to boost sales.
Despite these efforts, competition from domestic brands like Huawei remains fierce. Huawei has aggressively cut prices on its high-end devices by up to 20%, posing a significant challenge to Apple’s market share in China.
Looking ahead, Apple’s cautious production planning reflects its anticipation of continued challenges in the Chinese market. Projections for the first half of 2025 indicate a year-over-year shipment decline of about 6%.
Additionally, upcoming models like the rumored ultra-thin iPhone 17 and foldable iPhone, expected in the second half of 2025, may face hurdles due to their eSIM-only designs, as carrier support for eSIM in China remains limited.
Overall, Apple’s iPhone shipments are estimated to total approximately 220 million units for 2024, with a slight increase to 220–225 million in 2025.
These figures fall short of market expectations of over 240 million units annually, highlighting the challenges Apple faces in maintaining its foothold in the competitive Chinese smartphone market.
